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Lech Poznan UAM vs GKS Katowice W Prediction— Poland - Ekstraliga Women

Regular Season - 4 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 13:00

Lech Poznan UAM

PPG 1.44 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

GKS Katowice W

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-16.1%0-27.6%0-36.3%0-4+7.2%1 1-03.0%1-17.4%1-29.2%1-37.7%1-4+8.7%2 2-01.8%2-14.5%2-25.6%2-34.7%2-4+5.3%3 3-00.7%3-11.8%3-22.3%3-31.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.4% — — —

Draw 23.2% — — —

Away win 62.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 50.9% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 87%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob59.7%

A 62% / xG 1.2-2.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 1–3 7.7%

#4 0–2 7.6%

#5 0–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lech Poznan UAM1.2

GKS Katowice W2.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 50.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LECH POZNAN UAM · PPG 1.44

GKS KATOWICE W · PPG 2.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs Home AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Lech Poznan UAM (H) 14.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

GKS Katowice W (A) 62.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lech Poznan UAM face GKS Katowice W in Poland - Ekstraliga Women on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lech Poznan UAM a 14% chance, the draw 23% and GKS Katowice W 62%, so GKS Katowice W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Lech Poznan UAM and 2.5 for GKS Katowice W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lech Poznan UAM are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.22 for GKS Katowice W. This match finished 1-4.

Lech Poznan UAM vs GKS Katowice W Prediction— Poland - Ekstraliga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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