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Murdoch M. vs Joondalup City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 6 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 11:00

Murdoch M.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Joondalup City

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.80)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.7%0-24.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.2%1-111.1%1-27.5%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.7%3-15.0%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 26.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.1% — — —

Over 3.5 35.2% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Murdoch M.1.6

Joondalup City1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MURDOCH M. · PPG 2.00

JOONDALUP CITY · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Murdoch M. (H) 46.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Joondalup City (A) 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Murdoch M. face Joondalup City in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Murdoch M. a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Joondalup City 27%, so Murdoch M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Murdoch M. and 1.3 for Joondalup City (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Murdoch M. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Joondalup City. This match finished 3-4.

Murdoch M. vs Joondalup City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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