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Narva Trans vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 13 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 16:00

Narva Trans

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Paide

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-16.4%0-28.6%0-37.8%0-4+10.1%1 1-02.5%1-16.6%1-29.0%1-38.1%1-4+10.6%2 2-01.3%2-13.5%2-24.7%2-34.2%2-4+5.5%3 3-00.4%3-11.2%3-21.6%3-31.5%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 18.5% 5.40 -15.3%

Draw 21.3% 23.8% 4.20 -6.3%

Away win 64.9% 67.6% 1.48 -4.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 51.7% 43.5% 2.30 +18.9%

BTTS 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob59.7%

A 65% / xG 1.0-2.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.0%

#2 0–2 8.6%

#3 1–3 8.1%

#4 0–3 7.8%

#5 1–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Narva Trans1.0

Paide2.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 51.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NARVA TRANS · PPG 1.00

PAIDE · PPG 1.83

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Narva Trans (H) 13.8%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -15.3%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.3%

Paide (A) 64.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Narva Trans face Paide in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Narva Trans a 14% chance, the draw 21% and Paide 65%, so Paide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Narva Trans and 2.7 for Paide (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Narva Trans are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Paide. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Narva Trans vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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