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Kuressaare vs Nomme Utd Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 13 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 16:00

Kuressaare

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nomme Utd

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.1%0-24.1%0-32.7%0-4+2.1%1 1-04.0%1-17.8%1-27.7%1-35.1%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.8%2-17.4%2-27.3%2-34.8%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.4%3-14.7%3-24.6%3-33.0%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.4%4+-23.4%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 35.1% 2.85 +6.0%

Draw 24.8% 27.4% 3.65 -5.7%

Away win 38.1% 47.6% 2.10 -20.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 53.9% 42.6% 2.35 +26.7%

BTTS 63.0% 69.0% 1.45 -8.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.0%

A 38% / xG 1.9-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 1–2 7.7%

#3 2–1✓ 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kuressaare1.9

Nomme Utd2.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KURESSAARE · PPG 1.00

NOMME UTD · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Kuressaare (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +6.0%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.7%

Nomme Utd (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kuressaare face Nomme Utd in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kuressaare a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Nomme Utd 38%, so Nomme Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Kuressaare and 2.0 for Nomme Utd (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kuressaare are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Nomme Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Kuressaare vs Nomme Utd Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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