Today / Iberia vs Gagra

Iberia vs Gagra Prediction

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Iberia

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gagra

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-17.5%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.1%1-111.2%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-18.3%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.7%3-14.2%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 21.6% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 16.4% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 18.1%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 2–0 13.5%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Iberia1.5

Gagra0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IBERIA · PPG 1.80

GAGRA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Iberia (H) 52.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gagra (A) 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Iberia face Gagra on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Iberia a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Gagra 22%, so Iberia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Iberia and 0.6 for Gagra (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Iberia are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.33 for Gagra. This match finished 1-0.

Iberia vs Gagra Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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