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Ilves vs Inter Turku Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 15 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 15:00

Ilves

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Inter Turku

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-113.7%0-211.0%0-35.8%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.4%1-111.8%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.2%2-15.0%2-24.0%2-32.1%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.9%3-11.4%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% 28.6% 3.50 -8.1%

Draw 27.2% 29.9% 3.35 -5.3%

Away win 48.1% 50.5% 1.98 -4.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 54.6% 1.83 -12.9%

Over 3.5 23.3% 33.3% 3.00 -18.1%

BTTS 51.6% 60.6% 1.65 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob51.6%

A 48% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 13.7%

#3 0–2 11.0%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves0.9

Inter Turku1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES · PPG 1.50

INTER TURKU · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ilves (H) 24.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.3%

Inter Turku (A) 48.1%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves face Inter Turku in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves a 25% chance, the draw 27% and Inter Turku 48%, so Inter Turku are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ilves and 1.6 for Inter Turku (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Inter Turku. This match finished 1-3.

Ilves vs Inter Turku Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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