Today / Liaoning Tieren vs Qingdao Hainiu

Liaoning Tieren vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Liaoning Tieren

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Qingdao Hainiu

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.67)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-110.0%0-26.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.0%1-112.4%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.6%2-17.7%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% — — —

Draw 27.2% — — —

Away win 36.9% — — —

Over 2.5 52.6% — — —

Over 3.5 27.0% — — —

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.0%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liaoning Tieren1.2

Qingdao Hainiu1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LIAONING TIEREN · PPG 1.20

QINGDAO HAINIU · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Liaoning Tieren (H) 35.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Qingdao Hainiu (A) 36.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Liaoning Tieren face Qingdao Hainiu on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liaoning Tieren a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Qingdao Hainiu 37%, so Qingdao Hainiu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Liaoning Tieren and 1.4 for Qingdao Hainiu (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liaoning Tieren are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.67 for Qingdao Hainiu. This match finished 2-1.

Liaoning Tieren vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions