Today / Al Salmiyah vs Al Shabab

Al Salmiyah vs Al Shabab Prediction

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Al Salmiyah

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Al Shabab

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=54.1%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-16.2%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.1%1-110.0%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-18.0%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.2%3-14.3%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-12.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 19.2% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 16.7% — — —

BTTS 46.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.2%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.1%

#2 2–0 15.4%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 1–1 10.0%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Salmiyah1.6

Al Shabab0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SALMIYAH · PPG 2.00

AL SHABAB · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=54.1%

Win probability 1X2

Al Salmiyah (H) 54.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Shabab (A) 19.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Salmiyah face Al Shabab on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Salmiyah a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Al Shabab 19%, so Al Salmiyah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al Salmiyah and 0.5 for Al Shabab (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Salmiyah are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.13 for Al Shabab. This match finished 2-2.

Al Salmiyah vs Al Shabab Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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