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Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 37 ·Tuesday, May 19, 2026, 19:15

Chelsea

PPG 1.28 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tottenham

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.6%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.8%1-111.8%1-27.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.2%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-14.8%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 52.6% 1.90 -8.8%

Draw 26.0% 29.0% 3.45 -6.2%

Away win 26.0% 25.6% 3.90 +0.8%

Over 2.5 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Over 3.5 30.0% 38.5% 2.60 -22.0%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chelsea1.6

Tottenham1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELSEA · PPG 1.28

TOTTENHAM · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.28), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Chelsea (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -8.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -6.2%

Tottenham (A) 26.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chelsea face Tottenham in England - Premier League on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chelsea a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Tottenham 26%, so Chelsea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chelsea and 1.2 for Tottenham (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chelsea are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.44 for Tottenham. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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