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S. Italiano vs D. Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 16 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 18:30

S. Italiano

PPG 2.14 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

D. Laferrere

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-110.1%0-23.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.9%1-111.9%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.8%2-17.1%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.6%3-12.8%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 52.4% 1.91 -6.4%

Draw 30.3% 33.9% 2.95 -10.6%

Away win 20.7% 24.4% 4.10 -9.1%

Over 2.5 35.0% 33.3% 3.00 +5.0%

Over 3.5 10.6% 16.7% 6.00 -21.8%

BTTS 46.2% 40.8% 2.45 +13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.8%

#2 1–0 19.9%

#3 1–1✓ 11.9%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Italiano1.2

D. Laferrere0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.6%

Form & verdict PPG

S. ITALIANO · PPG 2.14

D. LAFERRERE · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=49.0%

Win probability 1X2

S. Italiano (H) 49.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -6.4%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -10.6%

D. Laferrere (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Italiano face D. Laferrere in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Italiano a 49% chance, the draw 30% and D. Laferrere 21%, so S. Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for S. Italiano and 0.6 for D. Laferrere (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Italiano are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.14 for D. Laferrere. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-1.

S. Italiano vs D. Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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