Today / Ariana vs Tvaaker

Ariana vs Tvaaker Prediction

Monday, May 18, 2026

Ariana

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Tvaaker

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-18.3%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.8%1-112.2%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.0%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.4%3-14.4%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% — — —

Draw 26.2% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 46.4% — — —

Over 3.5 20.0% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ariana1.5

Tvaaker0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ARIANA · PPG 1.67

TVAAKER · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ariana (H) 50.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tvaaker (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ariana face Tvaaker on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ariana a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Tvaaker 24%, so Ariana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ariana and 0.8 for Tvaaker (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ariana are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Tvaaker. This match finished 0-1.

Ariana vs Tvaaker Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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