Today / Egypt - Premier League / K. Ismailia vs Haras El Hodood

K. Ismailia vs Haras El Hodood Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 11 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 14:00

K. Ismailia

PPG 0.35 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Haras El Hodood

PPG 0.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-111.1%0-25.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.0%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.8%2-18.0%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.1%3-13.2%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 55.6% 1.80 -25.3%

Draw 30.7% 31.3% 3.20 -1.8%

Away win 27.8% 22.2% 4.50 +15.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 43.5% 2.30 +6.3%

Over 3.5 18.4% 23.8% 4.20 -13.6%

BTTS 50.8% 50.0% 2.00 +1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.8%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

K. Ismailia1.2

Haras El Hodood1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

K. ISMAILIA · PPG 0.35

HARAS EL HODOOD · PPG 0.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.35), Away POOR (0.46)

Win probability 1X2

K. Ismailia (H) 41.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -25.3%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -1.8%

Haras El Hodood (A) 27.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

K. Ismailia face Haras El Hodood in Egypt - Premier League on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives K. Ismailia a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Haras El Hodood 28%, so K. Ismailia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for K. Ismailia and 1.0 for Haras El Hodood (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, K. Ismailia are averaging 0.35 points per game versus 0.46 for Haras El Hodood. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 0-2.

K. Ismailia vs Haras El Hodood Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions