Today / Egypt - Premier League / El Geish vs Pharco

El Geish vs Pharco Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 11 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 14:00

El Geish logo
El Geish
PPG 1.50 · HOME
1 – 0
FULL TIME
Pharco logo
Pharco
PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.5%0-114.0%0-23.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.7%1-110.7%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.3%2-14.1%2-21.0%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.1%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 35.4% 54.6% 1.83 -35.2%
Draw 40.7% 34.5% 2.90 +18.0%
Away win 23.9% 20.0% 5.00 +11.7%
Over 2.5 25.8% 34.5% 2.90 -15.1%
Over 3.5 3.9% 16.7% 6.00 -46.0%
BTTS 39.2% 40.8% 2.45 -4.0%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%
O2.5 59%
BTTS 57%
Score Hit 46%
ROI -23.4%
Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.2%

H 35% / xG 0.8-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.5%
#2 1–0 21.7%
#3 0–1 14.0%
#4 1–1 10.7%
#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Geish0.8
Pharco0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 3.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EL GEISH · PPG 1.50

PHARCO · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=35.4%

Win probability 1X2

El Geish (H) 35.4%
ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -35.2%
Draw 40.7%
ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +18.0%
Pharco (A) 23.9%
ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Geish face Pharco in Egypt - Premier League on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Geish a 35% chance, the draw 41% and Pharco 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for El Geish and 0.5 for Pharco (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Geish are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.60 for Pharco. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

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