Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / South Melbourne vs George Cross

South Melbourne vs George Cross Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 09:30

South Melbourne

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

George Cross

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.2%0-24.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.1%1-110.8%1-27.2%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.3%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.0%3-15.4%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.4%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 13.9% 7.20 +249.2%

Draw 25.4% 20.8% 4.80 +13.2%

Away win 26.0% 75.2% 1.33 -39.3%

Over 2.5 59.2% 65.4% 1.53 -9.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 42.6% 2.35 -13.8%

BTTS 59.7% 56.5% 1.77 +5.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Melbourne1.7

George Cross1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 1.20

GEORGE CROSS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

South Melbourne (H) 48.5%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +249.2%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +13.2%

George Cross (A) 26.0%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -39.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Melbourne face George Cross in Australia - Victoria NPL on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Melbourne a 49% chance, the draw 25% and George Cross 26%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for South Melbourne and 1.3 for George Cross (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Melbourne are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.00 for George Cross. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +249.2%. This match finished 0-4.

South Melbourne vs George Cross Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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