Today / Arka Gdynia vs Termalica

Arka Gdynia vs Termalica Prediction

Monday, May 18, 2026

Arka Gdynia

PPG 1.88 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Termalica

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=46.4%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.9%0-24.6%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.4%1-111.2%1-27.5%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.1%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.7%3-14.9%3-23.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 26.9% — — —

Over 2.5 59.1% — — —

Over 3.5 34.5% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 0–0 5.2%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arka Gdynia1.6

Termalica1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARKA GDYNIA · PPG 1.88

TERMALICA · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=46.4%

Win probability 1X2

Arka Gdynia (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Termalica (A) 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Arka Gdynia face Termalica on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arka Gdynia a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Termalica 27%, so Arka Gdynia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Arka Gdynia and 1.3 for Termalica (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arka Gdynia are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.94 for Termalica. This match finished 2-3.

Arka Gdynia vs Termalica Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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