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Ghazl El M. vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 11 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 17:00

Ghazl El M.

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Al Ittihad

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-027.1%0-114.9%0-24.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.5%1-111.3%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.7%2-14.3%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.9%3-11.1%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 31.3% 3.20 +13.0%

Draw 40.8% 39.4% 2.54 +3.6%

Away win 23.9% 38.2% 2.62 -22.4%

Over 2.5 25.8% 29.4% 3.40 -7.4%

Over 3.5 4.4% 13.3% 7.50 -40.2%

BTTS 41.8% 40.8% 2.45 +2.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

H 35% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 27.1%

#2 1–0✓ 20.5%

#3 0–1 14.9%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ghazl El M.0.8

Al Ittihad0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GHAZL EL M. · PPG 1.20

AL ITTIHAD · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Ghazl El M. (H) 35.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +13.0%

Draw 40.8%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +3.6%

Al Ittihad (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ghazl El M. face Al Ittihad in Egypt - Premier League on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ghazl El M. a 35% chance, the draw 41% and Al Ittihad 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ghazl El M. and 0.6 for Al Ittihad (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ghazl El M. are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.75 for Al Ittihad. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Ghazl El M. vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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