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Manta vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 23:10

Manta

PPG 0.50 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Emelec

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.5%0-120.5%0-26.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.7%1-110.6%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-04.1%2-12.7%2-20.9%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.7%3-10.5%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 33.9% 2.95 -12.7%

Draw 40.5% 31.3% 3.20 +29.6%

Away win 32.8% 41.7% 2.40 -21.3%

Over 2.5 23.8% 44.4% 2.25 -27.9%

Over 3.5 3.3% 23.8% 4.20 -51.7%

BTTS 31.9% 52.6% 1.90 -39.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob31.9%

D 40% / xG 0.5-0.7 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 30.5%

#2 0–1 20.5%

#3 1–0 15.7%

#4 1–1 10.6%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manta0.5

Emelec0.7

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.8% · O3.5 PROB 3.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTA · PPG 0.50

EMELEC · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.50), Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Manta (H) 26.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -12.7%

Draw 40.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +29.6%

Emelec (A) 32.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manta face Emelec in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manta a 27% chance, the draw 41% and Emelec 33%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Manta and 0.7 for Emelec (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manta are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.67 for Emelec. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +29.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Manta vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions