Today / E. Merida vs Carabobo
E. Merida vs Carabobo Prediction
Sunday, May 17, 2026
// Model verdict
BTTS
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=40.3%
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%
Form & verdict
E. MERIDA · PPG 1.86
CARABOBO · PPG 0.57
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=40.3%
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
E. Merida face Carabobo on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives E. Merida a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Carabobo 34%, so E. Merida are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for E. Merida and 1.3 for Carabobo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, E. Merida are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.57 for Carabobo. This match finished 0-2.