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Kitchee vs Eastern SC Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Championship Group - 5 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:00

Kitchee

PPG 2.50 · HOME

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Eastern SC

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.5%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.5%1-16.7%1-24.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.3%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-17.9%3-24.8%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-19.9%4+-26.1%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 63.7% 1.57 -7.4%

Draw 20.7% 25.0% 4.00 -10.3%

Away win 20.3% 21.7% 4.60 -4.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 67.6% 1.48 -5.4%

Over 3.5 54.3% 45.5% 2.20 +19.5%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 19%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 59% / xG 2.7-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 6.7%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kitchee2.7

Eastern SC1.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KITCHEE · PPG 2.50

EASTERN SC · PPG 1.10

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=59.0%

Win probability 1X2

Kitchee (H) 59.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -7.4%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.3%

Eastern SC (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kitchee face Eastern SC in Hong-Kong - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kitchee a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Eastern SC 20%, so Kitchee are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Kitchee and 1.2 for Eastern SC (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kitchee are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.10 for Eastern SC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 4-4.

Kitchee vs Eastern SC Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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