Today / Almagro vs SM San Juan

Almagro vs SM San Juan Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Almagro

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

SM San Juan

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.5%0-116.7%0-25.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.4%1-112.3%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.4%2-14.6%2-21.6%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.6%3-11.1%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% — — —

Draw 40.4% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 25.8% — — —

Over 3.5 5.9% — — —

BTTS 46.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

D 40% / xG 0.7-0.7 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.5%

#2 1–0 17.4%

#3 0–1 16.7%

#4 1–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almagro0.7

SM San Juan0.7

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMAGRO · PPG 1.40

SM SAN JUAN · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Almagro (H) 34.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 40.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SM San Juan (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Almagro face SM San Juan on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almagro a 35% chance, the draw 40% and SM San Juan 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Almagro and 0.7 for SM San Juan (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almagro are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.83 for SM San Juan. This match finished 1-2.

Almagro vs SM San Juan Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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