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Leones Norte vs Mushuc Runa Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 18:00

Leones Norte

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Mushuc Runa

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-112.3%0-25.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-17.3%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.6%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 36.0% 2.78 +11.5%

Draw 33.9% 32.8% 3.05 +3.4%

Away win 26.0% 38.5% 2.60 -19.4%

Over 2.5 35.8% 42.6% 2.35 -15.9%

Over 3.5 13.7% 22.2% 4.50 -23.0%

BTTS 48.6% 51.8% 1.93 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.0%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones Norte1.1

Mushuc Runa0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.8% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES NORTE · PPG 1.67

MUSHUC RUNA · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=40.1%

Win probability 1X2

Leones Norte (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +11.5%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +3.4%

Mushuc Runa (A) 26.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones Norte face Mushuc Runa in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones Norte a 40% chance, the draw 34% and Mushuc Runa 26%, so Leones Norte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Leones Norte and 0.9 for Mushuc Runa (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones Norte are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.33 for Mushuc Runa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Leones Norte vs Mushuc Runa Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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