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Arsenal D. vs ML Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Arsenal D.

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

ML Vitebsk

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 48% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+13.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.8%0-28.6%0-34.5%0-4+2.6%1 1-07.5%1-111.9%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.1%2-16.5%2-25.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.5%3-12.4%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% 10.5% 9.50 +101.3%

Draw 26.5% 23.8% 4.20 +6.8%

Away win 45.2% 76.9% 1.30 -41.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 56.2% 1.78 -6.4%

Over 3.5 28.4% 37.9% 2.64 -15.0%

BTTS 52.6% 46.5% 2.15 +13.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.6%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.8%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal D.1.1

ML Vitebsk1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL D. · PPG 2.33

ML VITEBSK · PPG 3.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

48%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal D. (H) 28.3%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +101.3%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +6.8%

ML Vitebsk (A) 45.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -41.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal D. face ML Vitebsk in Belarus - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal D. a 28% chance, the draw 27% and ML Vitebsk 45%, so ML Vitebsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Arsenal D. and 1.6 for ML Vitebsk (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal D. are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 3.00 for ML Vitebsk. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +101.3%. This match finished 0-3.

Arsenal D. vs ML Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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