Today / R. Surdulica vs Red Star
R. Surdulica vs Red Star Prediction
Sunday, May 17, 2026
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
A 59% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%
Form & verdict
R. SURDULICA · PPG 1.65
RED STAR · PPG 2.29
Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home GOOD (1.65)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
R. Surdulica face Red Star on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Surdulica a 18% chance, the draw 24% and Red Star 59%, so Red Star are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for R. Surdulica and 2.0 for Red Star (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Surdulica are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 2.29 for Red Star. This match finished 0-0.