Today / R. Surdulica vs Red Star

R. Surdulica vs Red Star Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

R. Surdulica
PPG 1.65 · HOME
0 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
Red Star
PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-19.7%0-29.9%0-36.7%0-4+5.5%1 1-04.8%1-19.8%1-210.0%1-36.8%1-4+5.5%2 2-02.4%2-14.9%2-25.0%2-33.4%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.8%3-11.6%3-21.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 17.5%
Draw 23.9%
Away win 58.7%
Over 2.5 59.1%
Over 3.5 36.2%
BTTS 54.6%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-0
xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob54.6%

A 59% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%
#2 1–2 10.0%
#3 0–2 9.9%
#4 0–1 9.7%
#5 1–3 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

R. Surdulica1.0
Red Star2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

R. SURDULICA · PPG 1.65

RED STAR · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home GOOD (1.65)

Win probability 1X2

R. Surdulica (H) 17.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Red Star (A) 58.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Surdulica face Red Star on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Surdulica a 18% chance, the draw 24% and Red Star 59%, so Red Star are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for R. Surdulica and 2.0 for Red Star (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Surdulica are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 2.29 for Red Star. This match finished 0-0.

PredictVantage

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