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Karpaty Lviv vs Veres Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Karpaty Lviv

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Veres

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-19.6%0-23.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-112.7%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-18.3%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.6%3-13.7%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 59.5% 1.68 -19.4%

Draw 27.7% 28.6% 3.50 -1.8%

Away win 24.3% 22.2% 4.50 +5.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Over 3.5 16.4% 29.9% 3.35 -27.0%

BTTS 48.6% 54.6% 1.83 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 15.9%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 2–0✓ 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karpaty Lviv1.3

Veres0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KARPATY LVIV · PPG 1.15

VERES · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.15), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Karpaty Lviv (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -19.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.8%

Veres (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karpaty Lviv face Veres in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karpaty Lviv a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Veres 24%, so Karpaty Lviv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Karpaty Lviv and 0.8 for Veres (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karpaty Lviv are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.07 for Veres. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Karpaty Lviv vs Veres Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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