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Zamora vs Cacereno Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Zamora

PPG 1.94 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Cacereno

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 38.5% — a clear edge.

+30.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-18.5%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.5%1-112.3%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.0%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.4%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 38.5% 2.60 +30.5%

Draw 26.2% 33.9% 2.95 -13.6%

Away win 23.6% 37.7% 2.65 -22.5%

Over 2.5 46.6% 36.4% 2.75 +28.1%

Over 3.5 20.2% 22.2% 4.50 -5.5%

BTTS 49.2% 45.5% 2.20 +8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zamora1.5

Cacereno0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAMORA · PPG 1.94

CACERENO · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.94) vs P(Home)=50.2%

Win probability 1X2

Zamora (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +30.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -13.6%

Cacereno (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zamora face Cacereno in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zamora a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Cacereno 24%, so Zamora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Zamora and 0.9 for Cacereno (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zamora are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.11 for Cacereno. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Zamora vs Cacereno Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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