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Tenerife vs Pontevedra Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:00

Tenerife

PPG 2.17 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Pontevedra

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.5%0-111.9%0-24.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.7%1-112.6%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.9%2-16.7%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.5%3-12.4%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 46.5% 2.15 -6.7%

Draw 32.7% 31.3% 3.20 +4.6%

Away win 23.9% 31.3% 3.20 -14.1%

Over 2.5 35.0% 48.8% 2.05 -28.2%

Over 3.5 9.9% 27.0% 3.70 -38.0%

BTTS 46.2% 55.6% 1.80 -16.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.5%

#2 1–0 18.7%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tenerife1.1

Pontevedra0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TENERIFE · PPG 2.17

PONTEVEDRA · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Tenerife (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -6.7%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +4.6%

Pontevedra (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tenerife face Pontevedra in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tenerife a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Pontevedra 24%, so Tenerife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tenerife and 0.7 for Pontevedra (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tenerife are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.44 for Pontevedra. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Tenerife vs Pontevedra Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions