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Talavera CF vs Ourense CF Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Talavera CF

PPG 1.44 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Ourense CF

PPG 0.61 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-112.4%0-25.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.5%1-113.4%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.9%2-17.3%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.9%3-12.6%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 47.6% 2.10 -18.9%

Draw 33.9% 32.3% 3.10 +5.1%

Away win 27.6% 30.8% 3.25 -6.2%

Over 2.5 42.8% 47.6% 2.10 -10.1%

Over 3.5 14.5% 26.0% 3.85 -26.5%

BTTS 48.6% 54.6% 1.83 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0✓ 13.4%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 0–1 12.4%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Talavera CF1.1

Ourense CF0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TALAVERA CF · PPG 1.44

OURENSE CF · PPG 0.61

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=38.6%

Win probability 1X2

Talavera CF (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -18.9%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +5.1%

Ourense CF (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Talavera CF face Ourense CF in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Talavera CF a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Ourense CF 28%, so Talavera CF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Talavera CF and 0.9 for Ourense CF (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Talavera CF are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.61 for Ourense CF. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Talavera CF vs Ourense CF Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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