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Real Madrid B vs Arenas Club Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Real Madrid B

PPG 2.06 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Arenas Club

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.5%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.5%1-111.3%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.6%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 82.0% 1.22 -36.1%

Draw 25.8% 20.8% 4.80 +14.3%

Away win 21.8% 7.7% 13.00 +110.0%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 26.9% 37.0% 2.70 -16.4%

BTTS 51.6% 43.5% 2.30 +18.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Madrid B1.7

Arenas Club0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MADRID B · PPG 2.06

ARENAS CLUB · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Real Madrid B (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -36.1%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +14.3%

Arenas Club (A) 21.8%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +110.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Madrid B face Arenas Club in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Madrid B a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Arenas Club 22%, so Real Madrid B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Real Madrid B and 0.9 for Arenas Club (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Madrid B are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.67 for Arenas Club. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +110.0%. This match finished 3-3.

Real Madrid B vs Arenas Club Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions