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Real Aviles vs Barakaldo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Real Aviles

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Barakaldo

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-110.9%0-27.0%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.1%1-112.9%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.0%2-17.6%2-24.9%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.4%3-13.0%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 35.7% 2.80 +0.2%

Draw 27.4% 32.3% 3.10 -9.0%

Away win 36.8% 42.0% 2.38 -12.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Over 3.5 23.3% 27.8% 3.60 -9.7%

BTTS 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Aviles1.2

Barakaldo1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL AVILES · PPG 1.17

BARAKALDO · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Real Aviles (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +0.2%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.0%

Barakaldo (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Aviles face Barakaldo in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Aviles a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Barakaldo 37%, so Barakaldo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Real Aviles and 1.3 for Barakaldo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Aviles are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.78 for Barakaldo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 1-4.

Real Aviles vs Barakaldo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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