Real Aviles vs Barakaldo Prediction & Tips

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Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Group 1 - 37 Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta· Avilés Sunday, May 17, 2026 15:00

Real Aviles PPG 1.17

1-4 MISS

Barakaldo PPG 0.78

Home· +0.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.8%

Odds: 2.80 EV: +0.2%

Draw 27.4%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -9.0%

Away 36.8%

Odds: 2.38 EV: -12.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.6% Odds: 2.00 -4.8%

Over 3.5 23.3% Odds: 3.60 -9.7%

BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.73 -10.7%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Real Aviles

1.18

Barakaldo

1.27

Model SuggestionBTTS -10.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -10.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+0.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 53%

BTTS/No 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -35.1%

Bet Hit 35% (17 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.78)