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Racing Ferrol vs Osasuna B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Racing Ferrol

PPG 1.56 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Osasuna B

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-112.4%0-24.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.2%1-112.8%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.4%2-16.6%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.2%3-12.3%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 34.7% 2.88 +24.7%

Draw 32.8% 30.8% 3.25 +6.6%

Away win 23.9% 44.4% 2.25 -27.7%

Over 2.5 35.0% 48.8% 2.05 -28.2%

Over 3.5 9.9% 26.7% 3.75 -37.7%

BTTS 46.2% 55.6% 1.80 -16.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 43% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 17.6%

#2 1–0 18.2%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 12.4%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Ferrol1.0

Osasuna B0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING FERROL · PPG 1.56

OSASUNA B · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Racing Ferrol (H) 43.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +24.7%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +6.6%

Osasuna B (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Ferrol face Osasuna B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Ferrol a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Osasuna B 24%, so Racing Ferrol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Racing Ferrol and 0.7 for Osasuna B (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Ferrol are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.00 for Osasuna B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Racing Ferrol vs Osasuna B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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