Merida vs Unionistas Prediction & Tips

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Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Group 1 - 37 Estadio Romano Jose Fouto· Mérida Sunday, May 17, 2026 15:00

Merida PPG 1.89

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Unionistas PPG 1.06

Over2.5· +30.5% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.8%

Odds: 2.33 EV: +4.4%

Draw 28.0%

Odds: 2.95 EV: -10.4%

Away 27.2%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -11.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.2% Odds: 2.60 +30.5%

Over 3.5 25.9% Odds: 4.20 +5.3%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 2.10 +10.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Merida

1.39

Unionistas

1.19

Model SuggestionBTTS +10.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is +10.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over2.5 (+30.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.89) vs P(Home)=44.8%