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Merida vs Unionistas Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Merida

PPG 1.89 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Unionistas

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.0%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.6%1-112.5%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.7%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.0%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 42.9% 2.33 +4.4%

Draw 28.0% 33.9% 2.95 -10.4%

Away win 27.2% 33.3% 3.00 -11.0%

Over 2.5 50.2% 38.5% 2.60 +30.5%

Over 3.5 25.9% 23.8% 4.20 +5.3%

BTTS 52.6% 47.6% 2.10 +10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Merida1.4

Unionistas1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MERIDA · PPG 1.89

UNIONISTAS · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.89) vs P(Home)=44.8%

Win probability 1X2

Merida (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +4.4%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -10.4%

Unionistas (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Merida face Unionistas in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Merida a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Unionistas 27%, so Merida are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Merida and 1.2 for Unionistas (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Merida are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.06 for Unionistas. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Merida vs Unionistas Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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