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Celta Vigo B vs Lugo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Celta Vigo B

PPG 1.89 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lugo

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-18.6%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.2%1-112.4%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.0%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.3%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Draw 26.4% 30.3% 3.30 -7.7%

Away win 23.8% 24.4% 4.10 -1.5%

Over 2.5 46.9% 47.6% 2.10 -1.5%

Over 3.5 20.5% 26.3% 3.80 -13.3%

BTTS 50.5% 52.6% 1.90 -4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.5%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celta Vigo B1.4

Lugo0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTA VIGO B · PPG 1.89

LUGO · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.89) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Celta Vigo B (H) 49.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -10.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.7%

Lugo (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celta Vigo B face Lugo in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celta Vigo B a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Lugo 24%, so Celta Vigo B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Celta Vigo B and 0.9 for Lugo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celta Vigo B are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.11 for Lugo. This match finished 0-1.

Celta Vigo B vs Lugo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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