Today / Dubocica vs Smederevo

Dubocica vs Smederevo Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Dubocica

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Smederevo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-113.6%0-27.1%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.0%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.4%2-16.7%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.1%3-12.2%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% — — —

Draw 30.4% — — —

Away win 35.2% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 14.9% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 0–1 13.6%

#4 1–0 13.0%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dubocica1.0

Smederevo1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DUBOCICA · PPG 1.47

SMEDEREVO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Dubocica (H) 34.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Smederevo (A) 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dubocica face Smederevo on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dubocica a 34% chance, the draw 30% and Smederevo 35%, so Smederevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dubocica and 1.0 for Smederevo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dubocica are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.00 for Smederevo. This match finished 1-2.

Dubocica vs Smederevo Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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