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OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 8 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 18:00

OFK Beograd

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

UPCOMING

IMT Novi Beograd

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-112.2%0-26.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.5%1-113.4%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.9%2-17.4%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.5%3-12.7%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 43.5% 2.30 -17.2%

Draw 28.0% 34.5% 2.90 -11.3%

Away win 36.1% 33.3% 3.00 +8.3%

Over 2.5 44.5% 46.5% 2.15 -4.3%

Over 3.5 25.5% 26.7% 3.75 -2.6%

BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Home O1.5 30.9% 42.0% 2.38 -26.5%

Away O1.5 32.6% 30.8% 3.25 +5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -29.3%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–1 12.2%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OFK Beograd1.1

IMT Novi Beograd1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OFK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.32

IMT NOVI BEOGRAD · PPG 1.40

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.03, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

OFK Beograd (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -17.2%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.3%

IMT Novi Beograd (A) 36.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

OFK Beograd face IMT Novi Beograd in Serbia - Super Liga on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OFK Beograd a 36% chance, the draw 28% and IMT Novi Beograd 36%, so IMT Novi Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for OFK Beograd and 1.1 for IMT Novi Beograd (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OFK Beograd are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.40 for IMT Novi Beograd. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.6%.

OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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