Today / Motherwell W vs Aberdeen W
Motherwell W vs Aberdeen W Prediction
Sunday, May 17, 2026
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 52% / xG 2.5-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 58.4%
Form & verdict
MOTHERWELL W · PPG 1.18
ABERDEEN W · PPG 0.64
Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.18) > Away POOR (0.64)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Motherwell W face Aberdeen W on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motherwell W a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Aberdeen W 25%, so Motherwell W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Motherwell W and 1.6 for Aberdeen W (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motherwell W are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.64 for Aberdeen W. This match finished 0-3.