Today / Skanste vs JFK Ventspils

Skanste vs JFK Ventspils Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Skanste
PPG 1.75 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
JFK Ventspils
PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.7%0-21.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.6%1-15.3%1-23.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.0%2-18.0%2-24.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.1%3-18.2%3-24.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-011.4%4+-113.2%4+-27.6%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 61.7%
Draw 20.6%
Away win 17.7%
Over 2.5 63.9%
Over 3.5 60.3%
BTTS 59.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 62% / xG 3.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%
#2 2–1 8.0%
#3 3–0 7.1%
#4 2–0 7.0%
#5 4–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skanste3.0
JFK Ventspils1.2

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 60.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SKANSTE · PPG 1.75

JFK VENTSPILS · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=61.7%

Win probability 1X2

Skanste (H) 61.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 20.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
JFK Ventspils (A) 17.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Skanste face JFK Ventspils on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skanste a 62% chance, the draw 21% and JFK Ventspils 18%, so Skanste are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Skanste and 1.2 for JFK Ventspils (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skanste are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.33 for JFK Ventspils.

PredictVantage

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