Today / Skanste vs JFK Ventspils
Skanste vs JFK Ventspils Prediction
Sunday, May 17, 2026
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 62% / xG 3.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 60.3%
Form & verdict
SKANSTE · PPG 1.75
JFK VENTSPILS · PPG 0.33
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=61.7%
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Skanste face JFK Ventspils on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skanste a 62% chance, the draw 21% and JFK Ventspils 18%, so Skanste are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Skanste and 1.2 for JFK Ventspils (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skanste are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.33 for JFK Ventspils.