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T. Zhodino vs Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

T. Zhodino

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Vitebsk

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.8%0-114.2%0-24.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.5%1-112.6%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.2%2-15.6%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.4%3-11.7%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 50.0% 2.00 -24.4%

Draw 36.7% 32.3% 3.10 +13.8%

Away win 25.5% 30.3% 3.30 -9.5%

Over 2.5 35.0% 44.8% 2.23 -21.9%

Over 3.5 7.5% 24.7% 4.05 -41.8%

BTTS 46.2% 52.4% 1.91 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 38% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.8%

#2 1–0 18.5%

#3 1–1✓ 12.6%

#4 0–1 14.2%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

T. Zhodino0.9

Vitebsk0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 7.5%

Form & verdict PPG

T. ZHODINO · PPG 1.00

VITEBSK · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

T. Zhodino (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -24.4%

Draw 36.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +13.8%

Vitebsk (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

T. Zhodino face Vitebsk in Belarus - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives T. Zhodino a 38% chance, the draw 37% and Vitebsk 26%, so T. Zhodino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for T. Zhodino and 0.7 for Vitebsk (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, T. Zhodino are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Vitebsk. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 1-1.

T. Zhodino vs Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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