Today / Vasteras vs AIK

Vasteras vs AIK Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Vasteras

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

AIK

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.3%0-25.2%0-32.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.2%1-110.2%1-28.4%1-34.6%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.2%2-26.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.7%3-14.4%3-23.7%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.6%4+-22.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 37.6% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 41.1% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.7%

A 38% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2✓ 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–0 3.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasteras1.6

AIK1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VASTERAS · PPG 0.67

AIK · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Vasteras (H) 37.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

AIK (A) 37.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasteras face AIK on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasteras a 37% chance, the draw 25% and AIK 38%, so AIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vasteras and 1.6 for AIK (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasteras are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.67 for AIK. This match finished 1-2.

Vasteras vs AIK Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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