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Skiljebo vs Kungsangen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Skiljebo

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kungsangen

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a clear edge.

+16.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-11.4%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.2%1-14.5%1-21.4%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.3%2-17.2%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.9%3-17.5%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-020.5%4+-112.9%4+-24.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.1% 61.0% 1.64 +16.6%

Draw 20.5% 26.0% 3.85 -12.7%

Away win 8.4% 23.1% 4.33 -38.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 52.2% 45.5% 2.20 +14.8%

BTTS 49.2% 67.6% 1.48 -27.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -22.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.2%

H 71% / xG 3.1-0.6 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.9%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 4–0 9.3%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 2–1✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skiljebo3.1

Kungsangen0.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SKILJEBO · PPG 2.33

KUNGSANGEN · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Skiljebo (H) 71.1%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +16.6%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -12.7%

Kungsangen (A) 8.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -38.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skiljebo face Kungsangen in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skiljebo a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Kungsangen 8%, so Skiljebo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Skiljebo and 0.6 for Kungsangen (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skiljebo are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.00 for Kungsangen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Skiljebo vs Kungsangen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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