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Kuressaare vs Nomme Kalju Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Kuressaare

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Nomme Kalju

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-114.5%0-214.5%0-39.6%0-4+7.6%1 1-04.6%1-19.1%1-29.1%1-36.0%1-4+4.7%2 2-01.4%2-12.8%2-22.8%2-31.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.6% 11.9% 8.40 +8.5%

Draw 22.4% 22.7% 4.40 -0.9%

Away win 64.0% 75.2% 1.33 -14.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Over 3.5 26.8% 40.8% 2.45 -20.6%

BTTS 48.6% 54.6% 1.83 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob48.6%

A 64% / xG 0.6-2.0 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2✓ 14.5%

#2 0–1 14.5%

#3 1–1 9.1%

#4 0–3 9.6%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kuressaare0.6

Nomme Kalju2.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KURESSAARE · PPG 1.20

NOMME KALJU · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Kuressaare (H) 13.6%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +8.5%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -0.9%

Nomme Kalju (A) 64.0%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kuressaare face Nomme Kalju in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kuressaare a 14% chance, the draw 22% and Nomme Kalju 64%, so Nomme Kalju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Kuressaare and 2.0 for Nomme Kalju (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kuressaare are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.40 for Nomme Kalju. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Kuressaare vs Nomme Kalju Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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