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National Bank vs El Gouna Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 11 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

National Bank logo
National Bank
PPG 1.38 · HOME
1 – 1
FULL TIME
El Gouna logo
El Gouna
PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.2%0-115.7%0-24.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.0%1-111.9%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.2%2-14.5%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.8%3-11.1%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 35.0% 55.6% 1.80 -37.0%
Draw 41.0% 31.7% 3.15 +29.1%
Away win 24.0% 21.7% 4.60 +6.2%
Over 2.5 25.8% 43.5% 2.30 -24.4%
Over 3.5 5.1% 22.2% 4.50 -46.2%
BTTS 41.8% 48.8% 2.05 -14.3%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%
O2.5 59%
BTTS 57%
Score Hit 46%
ROI -23.4%
Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-1
xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

H 35% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.2%
#2 1–0 19.0%
#3 0–1 15.7%
#4 1–1 11.9%
#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

National Bank0.8
El Gouna0.6

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NATIONAL BANK · PPG 1.38

EL GOUNA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...
48%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

National Bank (H) 35.0%
ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -37.0%
Draw 41.0%
ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +29.1%
El Gouna (A) 24.0%
ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

National Bank face El Gouna in Egypt - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives National Bank a 35% chance, the draw 41% and El Gouna 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for National Bank and 0.6 for El Gouna (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, National Bank are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.50 for El Gouna. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +29.1%. This match finished 1-1.

PredictVantage

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