Today / Hamilton A. W vs Montrose W

Hamilton A. W vs Montrose W Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Hamilton A. W

PPG 0.18 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Montrose W

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.18) vs Home POOR (0.18)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-15.3%0-27.4%0-37.0%0-4+9.7%1 1-02.2%1-16.1%1-28.6%1-38.1%1-4+11.3%2 2-01.3%2-13.6%2-25.0%2-34.7%2-4+6.6%3 3-00.5%3-11.4%3-21.9%3-31.8%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 65.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 56.1% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 65% / xG 1.2-2.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.6%

#2 1–3 8.1%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 1–1 6.1%

#5 0–3 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamilton A. W1.2

Montrose W2.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMILTON A. W · PPG 0.18

MONTROSE W · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.18) vs Home POOR (0.18)

Win probability 1X2

Hamilton A. W (H) 13.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Montrose W (A) 65.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamilton A. W face Montrose W on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamilton A. W a 14% chance, the draw 21% and Montrose W 65%, so Montrose W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hamilton A. W and 2.8 for Montrose W (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamilton A. W are averaging 0.18 points per game versus 1.18 for Montrose W. This match finished 3-0.

Hamilton A. W vs Montrose W Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions