Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg

Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Holstein Kiel

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DDL ··

UPCOMING

1. FC Nürnberg

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.8%0-25.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.6%1 1-06.7%1-110.6%1-28.4%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.3%2-26.6%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.7%3-14.3%3-23.4%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.4%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 41.7% 2.40 -16.0%

Draw 23.0% 27.8% 3.60 -10.3%

Away win 42.0% 37.7% 2.65 +11.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 62.5% 1.60 +1.9%

Over 3.5 40.3% 40.8% 2.45 -1.3%

BTTS 61.5% 67.6% 1.48 -9.0%

Home O1.5 46.0% 51.3% 1.95 -10.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 48.8% 2.05 -1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.5%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–2 5.4%

#5 0–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Holstein Kiel1.6

1. FC Nürnberg1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HOLSTEIN KIEL · PPG 1.30

1. FC NÜRNBERG · PPG 1.41

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Holstein Kiel (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -16.0%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.3%

1. FC Nürnberg (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Holstein Kiel face 1. FC Nürnberg in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Holstein Kiel a 35% chance, the draw 23% and 1. FC Nürnberg 42%, so 1. FC Nürnberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Holstein Kiel and 1.6 for 1. FC Nürnberg (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.41 for 1. FC Nürnberg. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +4.3%.

Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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