Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / VfL Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus

VfL Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

VfL Wolfsburg

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DWW ··

UPCOMING

Energie Cottbus

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.2%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.1%1-19.0%1-25.7%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.4%3-16.9%3-24.4%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-16.0%4+-23.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 76.9% 1.30 -29.4%

Draw 21.8% 19.0% 5.25 +8.7%

Away win 23.9% 10.9% 9.20 +71.9%

Over 2.5 65.0% 70.4% 1.42 -7.7%

Over 3.5 44.9% 48.8% 2.05 -8.0%

BTTS 61.9% 59.9% 1.67 +3.4%

Home O1.5 60.9% 76.9% 1.30 -20.8%

Away O1.5 37.2% 26.0% 3.85 +43.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.9%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VfL Wolfsburg2.1

Energie Cottbus1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VFL WOLFSBURG · PPG 1.42

ENERGIE COTTBUS · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

VfL Wolfsburg (H) 54.3%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -29.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +8.7%

Energie Cottbus (A) 23.9%

ODDS 9.20 · IMPLIED 10.9% EV +71.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

VfL Wolfsburg face Energie Cottbus in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Energie Cottbus 24%, so VfL Wolfsburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.3 for Energie Cottbus (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.25 for Energie Cottbus. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +79.7%.

VfL Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - 2. Bundesliga Predictions