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Dynamo Dresden vs VfL Bochum Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:30

Dynamo Dresden

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LWL ··

UPCOMING

VfL Bochum

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.9%0-24.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.2%1-112.0%1-27.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.2%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.0%3-14.7%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 47.6% 2.10 -4.9%

Draw 24.5% 27.4% 3.65 -6.3%

Away win 30.2% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 39.2% 2.55 -19.2%

BTTS 54.9% 66.7% 1.50 -17.6%

Home O1.5 41.2% 54.1% 1.85 -23.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 43.5% 2.30 -23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dynamo Dresden1.5

VfL Bochum1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DYNAMO DRESDEN · PPG 1.70

VFL BOCHUM · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dynamo Dresden (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -4.9%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.3%

VfL Bochum (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dynamo Dresden face VfL Bochum in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dynamo Dresden a 45% chance, the draw 25% and VfL Bochum 30%, so Dynamo Dresden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Dynamo Dresden and 1.2 for VfL Bochum (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dynamo Dresden are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.41 for VfL Bochum.

Dynamo Dresden vs VfL Bochum Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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