Today / Venezia W vs San Marino A. W

Venezia W vs San Marino A. W Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Venezia W
PPG 0.42 · HOME
2 – 1
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
San Marino A. W
PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.8%0-27.1%0-34.9%0-4+4.1%1 1-04.4%1-19.2%1-29.5%1-36.5%1-4+5.5%2 2-03.0%2-16.1%2-26.4%2-34.4%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.3%3-12.7%3-22.8%3-32.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 28.6%
Draw 25.1%
Away win 46.3%
Over 2.5 63.9%
Over 3.5 44.4%
BTTS 59.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 2-1
xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.3-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%
#2 1–2 9.5%
#3 0–2 7.1%
#4 1–3 6.5%
#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Venezia W1.3
San Marino A. W2.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VENEZIA W · PPG 0.42

SAN MARINO A. W · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.42)

Win probability 1X2

Venezia W (H) 28.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 25.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
San Marino A. W (A) 46.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Venezia W face San Marino A. W on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Venezia W a 29% chance, the draw 25% and San Marino A. W 46%, so San Marino A. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Venezia W and 2.1 for San Marino A. W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Venezia W are averaging 0.42 points per game versus 1.33 for San Marino A. W. This match finished 2-1.

PredictVantage

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