Today / Trastevere W vs Freedom W

Trastevere W vs Freedom W Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Trastevere W

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Freedom W

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-17.4%0-27.9%0-35.6%0-4+4.9%1 1-04.3%1-19.1%1-29.7%1-36.9%1-4+6.0%2 2-02.6%2-15.6%2-26.0%2-34.2%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.1%3-12.3%3-22.4%3-31.7%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% — — —

Draw 23.7% — — —

Away win 53.5% — — —

Over 2.5 62.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.4% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 54% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.1%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 1–3 6.9%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trastevere W1.2

Freedom W2.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TRASTEVERE W · PPG 0.33

FREEDOM W · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Trastevere W (H) 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Freedom W (A) 53.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Trastevere W face Freedom W on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trastevere W a 23% chance, the draw 24% and Freedom W 54%, so Freedom W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Trastevere W and 2.1 for Freedom W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trastevere W are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Freedom W. This match finished 1-1.

Trastevere W vs Freedom W Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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