Today / RES Roma W vs Arezzo W

RES Roma W vs Arezzo W Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

RES Roma W
PPG 1.75 · HOME
2 – 1
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Arezzo W
PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.8%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.6%1-18.5%1-24.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.5%3-17.4%3-24.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-17.1%4+-24.0%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 54.0%
Draw 23.6%
Away win 22.4%
Over 2.5 63.9%
Over 3.5 44.2%
BTTS 59.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 2-1
xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%
#2 2–1 9.7%
#3 2–0 8.6%
#4 3–1 7.4%
#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RES Roma W2.3
Arezzo W1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RES ROMA W · PPG 1.75

AREZZO W · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

RES Roma W (H) 54.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Arezzo W (A) 22.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

RES Roma W face Arezzo W on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RES Roma W a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Arezzo W 22%, so RES Roma W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for RES Roma W and 1.1 for Arezzo W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RES Roma W are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Arezzo W. This match finished 2-1.

PredictVantage

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