Today / Cesena W vs Frosinone W

Cesena W vs Frosinone W Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Cesena W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Frosinone W

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.9%0-21.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.5%1-17.3%1-24.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.9%2-19.1%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.7%3-17.5%3-25.0%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-18.4%4+-25.6%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% — — —

Draw 23.6% — — —

Away win 22.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 52.7% — — —

BTTS 60.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.5%

H 54% / xG 2.5-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1✓ 7.3%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cesena W2.5

Frosinone W1.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CESENA W · PPG 2.00

FROSINONE W · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=54.0%

Win probability 1X2

Cesena W (H) 54.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Frosinone W (A) 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cesena W face Frosinone W on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cesena W a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Frosinone W 22%, so Cesena W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Cesena W and 1.3 for Frosinone W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cesena W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.08 for Frosinone W. This match finished 1-1.

Cesena W vs Frosinone W Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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