Today / Brescia W vs Bologna W

Brescia W vs Bologna W Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Brescia W
PPG 1.50 · HOME
0 – 3
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Bologna W
PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.6%0-25.4%0-33.5%0-4+2.6%1 1-04.6%1-19.0%1-28.7%1-35.6%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.7%2-17.2%2-27.0%2-34.5%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.0%3-13.9%3-23.7%3-32.4%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.2%4+-22.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 35.1%
Draw 23.7%
Away win 41.2%
Over 2.5 63.9%
Over 3.5 47.3%
BTTS 62.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-3
xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.5%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%
#2 1–2 8.7%
#3 2–1 7.2%
#4 2–2 7.0%
#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brescia W1.6
Bologna W1.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BRESCIA W · PPG 1.50

BOLOGNA W · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value
45%
DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Brescia W (H) 35.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Bologna W (A) 41.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Brescia W face Bologna W on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brescia W a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Bologna W 41%, so Bologna W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Brescia W and 1.9 for Bologna W (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brescia W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.83 for Bologna W. This match finished 0-3.

PredictVantage

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